Highlights:

The four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, and Madison counties) experienced a mix of economic indicators in the first quarter, owing largely to the economic shock of the coronavirus lockdown, which began to impact the area in March. Therefore, this economic report reflects numbers mostly incurred prior to COVID-19’s impact. Overall, the first quarter numbers show employment remaining flat and unemployment rates holding relatively low, while declines in Lodging Sales, Airport Passenger Traffic and Retail Sales signaled the end of a multi-year expansion.

• In the first quarter of 2020, employment in the Asheville metro remained flat, as the months of January and February saw minor gains, which were then offset by losses in March.

• Averaging 3.4 percent over the first quarter of 2020, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continued to hold below both the nation and state; averaging 4.1 and 4.0 percent respectively.

• Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville metro equaled $24.01 in the first quarter, a 7.8 percent gain from a year earlier. The figure is the highest hourly rate on record for the metro and the largest percentage increase in three years.

• Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $65.4 million in the first quarter; $7.5 million or 10.2 percent below the first quarter of 2019. This marks the first quarterly year-to-year decline in ten years.
  
  
• Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 282,788 in the first quarter of 2020; a 4.6 percent decline from a year earlier. This marks the first quarterly year-to-year passenger decline since early 2016.
  
  
• Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metro totaled $1,727,110,081 ($1.7 billion) in the first quarter; 1.7 percent less than one year earlier. This marks the first quarterly year-to-year decline in retail sales since the fourth quarter of 2013.

Detailed Analysis:
Employment

In the first quarter of 2020, employment in the Asheville metro remained flat, as the months of January and February saw minor gains, which were then offset by losses in March (Figure 1). This ends an uninterrupted period of job growth lasting for nine and one-half years. Employment averaged 197,100 over the quarter. Asheville metro’s first quarter growth rate is slightly below the national rate of 1.2 percent and the statewide rate of 0.7 percent.

Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the first quarter places it eight among the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 2). Six of the state’s metros lost employment over the quarter, while only four outpaced the national rate.

Figure 2
2020 1Q Average
North Carolina Metros
Employment One-Year Percent Change

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Averaging 3.4 percent over the first quarter of 2020, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold below both the nation and state; averaging 4.1 and 4.0 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into roughly 7,877 Asheville metro residents unable to find employment.
Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter tied with Durham-Chapel Hill as the lowest among the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4).

Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)

Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2020 1Q Average

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Five of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the first quarter of 2020 when compared to one-year earlier; Leisure and Hospitality led with a net gain of 600 jobs followed by an increase of 400 jobs in the Government sector (Figure 5).

Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2020 1Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change

Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Earnings

Private industry average hourly earnings in the Asheville metro equaled $24.01 in the first quarter, a 7.8 percent gain from a year earlier (Figure 6). The figure is the highest hourly rate on record for the metro and the largest percentage increase in three years.

Asheville metro’s first quarter hourly earnings place it seventh among all fifteen metros in the state: remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Only two of the state’s metros hold average hourly earnings above the national average, Charlotte and Raleigh.

Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2020 1Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Leisure & Hospitality

Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $65.4 million in the first quarter; $7.5 million or 10.2 percent below the first quarter of 2019 (Figure 8). This marks the first quarterly year-to-year decline in ten years.

Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales

Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority

Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County equaled $128 in the first quarter, a 5.5 percent increase from one year earlier (Figure 9). This marks the highest average percentage gain in three years.

Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate

Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority

Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 282,788 in the first quarter of 2020; a 4.6 percent decline from a year earlier (Figure 10). This marks the first quarterly year-to-year passenger decline since early 2016.

Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers

Source: Asheville Regional Airport

Housing

In the first quarter 1,564 home sales closed in the Asheville metro with an average sales price of $343,012 and a median sales price of $291,467 (Figure 11). The number of closed homes sales is 12.4 percent above the number closed one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 11.8 percent and the median price increased by 9.5 percent (Figure 12). The fourth quarter saw 2,102 new home listings, a 6.8 percent decline from the first quarter of 2019.

Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales

Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association

Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)

Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association

At 5.2 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the first quarter ranks tenth among all the state’s metros; the rate is marginally above the national average of 5.0 percent and slightly below the statewide pace of 5.6 percent (Figure 13). This marks 28 consecutive quarters of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in the Asheville metro.

Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2020 1Q

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 536 units in the first quarter with a value of $160 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is down 2.5 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 15.6 percent. Permitted multi-family units totaled 57, the lowest quarterly total since early 2015.

Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*

*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Retail Sales

Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metro totaled $1,727,110,081 ($1.7 billion) in the first quarter; 1.7 percent less than one-year earlier (Figure 15). This marks the first quarterly year-to-year decline in retail sales since the fourth quarter of 2013.

Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales

Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue

To read a previous JPS article on unemployment rates extending through April 2020, click here.

To read a previous JPS article on employment rates extending through April 2020, click here.

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