Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2019 Third Quarter
Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is pleased to produce Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2019 Third Quarter. JPS is a sixty+ year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion, NC. JPS serves Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, consulting, audit, and technology services.
Highlights:
The four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties) remains on a path of strong growth. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth continues uninterrupted. The metro’s private industry average hourly earnings reached an all-time high while continuing its long-held position as having the lowest unemployment rate. The Leisure & Hospitality sector experienced slower growth in the third quarter, and, while Retail Sales were up from last year, the pace of growth slowed.
• In the third quarter of 2019, the Asheville metro added an average of 8,100 net new jobs from one year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 4.2 percent. This is the metro’s highest growth rate in 22 years; not since 1997.
• Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for one-hundred and ten straight months; slightly more than nine years.
• Asheville’s employment growth rate over the third quarter firmly place it as the fastest growing metro in the state, outpacing the second fastest growing metro, Wilmington, by slightly more than a full percentage point.
• Asheville’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros. The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last fifty-five consecutive months; about four and one-half years.
• Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville equaled $23.18 in the third quarter, a 1.2 percent gain from a year earlier. The figure is the highest hourly rate on record for the metro.
• The Leisure & Hospitality sector exhibited a slower pace of growth in the third quarter; employment slipped by 100 workers, Buncombe County Lodging Sales had the lowest growth rate since 2013 and the Average Hotel Room rate declined by 2.5 percent; the first quarterly decline over the last eight years .
• Taxable retail sales in Asheville totaled $2,095,757,140 ($2.1 billion) in the third quarter; setting a new all-time third quarter record. Sales were up 1.2 percent from the third quarter of 2018; marking the lowest quarterly pace since 2013.
Detailed Analysis:
Employment
In the third quarter of 2019, the Asheville metro added an average of 8,100 net new jobs from one year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 4.2 percent (Figure 1). This is the metro’s highest growth rate in 22 years; not since 1997. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for one-hundred and ten straight months; slightly more than nine years. Employment averaged 202,900 over the quarter. Asheville’s third quarter growth rate easily outpaced the national rate of 1.5 percent and the statewide rate of 1.8 percent.
Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Asheville’s employment growth rate over the third quarter firmly place it as the fastest growing metro in the state, outpacing the second fastest growing metro, Wilmington, by slightly more than a full percentage point (Figure 2). Only one of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Rocky Mount.
Figure 2
2019 3Q Average
North Carolina Metros
Employment One-Year Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Averaging 3.2 percent over the third quarter of 2019, Asheville’s unemployment rate continues to hold below both the nation and state; averaging 3.7 and 4.1 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into roughly 7,900 Asheville residents unable to find employment.
Asheville’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last fifty-five consecutive months; about four and one-half years. Across North Carolina, only Asheville and Raleigh had unemployment rates lower than the national average.
Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2019 3Q Average
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Nine of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the third quarter of 2019 when compared to one-year earlier; Health Services led with a net gain of 2,600 jobs followed by Retail Trade and Manufacturing (Figure 5). The Leisure and Hospitality sectors lost a net of 100 jobs, an uncharacteristic decline after a decade of strong growth.
Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2019 3Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change
Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Earnings
Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville equaled $23.18 in the third quarter, a 1.2 percent gain from a year earlier (Figure 6). The figure is the highest hourly rate on record for the metro.
Asheville’s third quarter hourly earnings place it seventh among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Only two of the state’s metros held average hourly earnings above the national average; Charlotte and Durham-Chapel Hill.
Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2019 3Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Leisure & Hospitality
Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $124.9 million in the third quarter; $3.9 million or 3.3 percent above the third quarter of 2018 (Figure 8). Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for 39 consecutive quarters: nine and three-quarters years. Despite positive growth, at 3.3 percent the quarterly pace was the lowest since 2013.
Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales
Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County dropped by a 2.5 percent from one year earlier (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $164 over the quarter. This marks the first quarterly decline over the last eight years.
Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 452,481 in the third quarter of 2019; up 46.8 percent from a year earlier and breaking an all-time quarter record (Figure 10). This marks the twelfth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.
Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers
Source: Asheville Regional Airport
Housing
In the third quarter 2,290 home sales closed in the Asheville metro with an average sales price of $332,120 and a median sales price of $284,917 (Figure 11). The number of closed homes sales is 10.9 percent above the number closed one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 2.4 percent and the median price increased by 5.9 percent (Figure 12). The third quarter saw 2,822 new home listings, a 1.9 percent decline from the third quarter of 2018.
Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales
Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)
Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
At 4.5 percent, Asheville’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the third quarter ranks eleventh among all the state’s metros; the rate is below the statewide pace of 4.6 percent and national average of 5.3 percent (Figure 13). This marks six and one-half consecutive years of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in Asheville. Among the 231 metros ranked by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Asheville places 122nd nationally for it’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate.
Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2019 3Q
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 695 units in the third quarter with a value of $173.6 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is down 10.2 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 16.0 percent. The total permit value is the highest since 2007. Multi-family accounted for 150 units or 22 percent of all residential units issued in the quarter.
Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*
*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Retail Sales
Taxable retail sales in Asheville totaled $2,095,757,140 ($2.1 billion) in the third quarter; setting a new all-time third quarter record (Figure 15). Sales were up 1.2 percent from the third quarter of 2018; marking the lowest quarterly pace since 2013. Despite the slower pace, retail sales have increased, year-over-year, in the last 23 consecutive quarters.
Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales
Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue
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