Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2019 First Quarter

Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is pleased to produce Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2019 First Quarter. JPS is a sixty+ year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion, NC. JPS serves Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, consulting, audit, and technology services.

Highlights:

The first quarter saw the four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties) continue a path of strong, unbroken growth. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for more than eight and one-half years. The metro grew at the fastest pace among all metros in the state. Asheville metro held the lowest unemployment rate in the state, as it has for the last forty-nine consecutive months.

⦁ In the first quarter of 2019, Asheville metro added an average of 5,400 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.8 percent. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for slightly more than eight and one-half years.

⦁ Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the first quarter of 2019 places it first as the fastest growing metro in the state.

⦁ At 3.4 percent, Asheville’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros. The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty-nine consecutive months; slightly more than four years.

⦁ Nine of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the first quarter of 2019 when compared to one-year earlier; Manufacturing led with a net gain of 1,300 jobs followed by Professional & Business Services and Construction.

⦁ Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $71.8 million in the first quarter; $6.5 million or 10 percent above the first quarter of 2018. Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for nine and one-quarter straight years.

⦁ Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 296,578 in the first quarter of 2019; up 45.2 percent from a year earlier and setting a new all-time first quarter record. This marks the tenth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.

Detailed Analysis:

Employment

In the first quarter of 2019, Asheville metro added an average of 5,400 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.8 percent (Figure 1). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for one-hundred and four straight months; slightly more than eight and one-half years. Employment averaged 197,600 over the quarter. Asheville metro’s first quarter growth rate easily outpaced the national rate of 1.8 percent and the statewide rate of 1.5 percent.

Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the first quarter of 2019 places it first as the fastest growing metro in the state (Figure 2). Four of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Burlington, Rocky Mount, Goldsboro, and Jacksonville. Among the state’s fifteen metros, Asheville, Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Wilmington grew faster than the nation.

Figure 2
2019 1Q Average
North Carolina Metros
Employment One-Year Percent Change

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Averaging 3.4 percent over the first quarter of 2019, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below both the nation and state; averaging 4.1 and 4.3 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into roughly 8,200 Asheville metro residents unable to find employment.

Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty-nine consecutive months; slightly more than four years. Seven of the state’s metros have first quarter unemployment rates exceeding the national average.

Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2019 1Q Average

Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Nine of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the first quarter of 2019 when compared to one-year earlier; Manufacturing led with a net gain of 1,300 jobs followed by Professional & Business Services and Construction (Figure 5). No major industry sector experienced net job losses.

Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2019 1Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change

Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security

Earnings

Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville metro equaled $22.27 in the first quarter, a decline of 2.6 percent from a year earlier (Figure 6). The decline was the largest percentage loss since the first quarter of 2015.
Asheville metro’s first quarter hourly earnings place it eighth among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Three of the state’s metros held average hourly earnings above both the national and state averages; Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham-Chapel Hill.

Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2019 1Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Leisure & Hospitality

Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $71.8 million in the first quarter; $6.5 million or 10 percent above the first quarter of 2018 (Figure 8). Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for nine and one-quarter straight years.

Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales

Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority

Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by a tepid 0.2 percent from one year earlier (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $122 over the first quarter.

Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate

Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority

Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 296,578 in the first quarter of 2019; up 45.2 percent from a year earlier and setting a new all-time first quarter record (Figure 10). This marks the tenth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.

Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers

Source: Asheville Regional Airport

Housing

In the first quarter 1,489 home sales were closed in the Asheville metro with an average sales price of $307,738 and a median sales price of $266,675 (Figure 11). The number of homes sold is 11.4 percent below the number sold one-year earlier. Over the same period, the average sales price gained 3.9 percent and the median price increased by 4.1 percent (Figure 12). The first quarter saw 2,494 new home listings, a 3.1 percent increase from the first quarter of 2018.

Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales

Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association

Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)

Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association

At 5.8 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the first quarter ranks eleventh among all the state’s metros; the rate is below the statewide pace of 7.2 percent and slightly above the national average of 5.5 percent (Figure 13). This marks six consecutive years of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in the Asheville metropolitan area. Among the 241 metros ranked by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Asheville metro places 116th for its Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate.

Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2019 1Q

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 608 units in the first quarter with a value of $138 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is down 23.6 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is down 9.9 percent. Multi-family accounted for 153 units or 25 percent of all residential units issued in the first quarter.

Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*

*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Retail Sales

Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metro totaled $1,757,397,684 ($1.7 billion) in the first quarter; setting a new all-time first quarter record. Sales were up 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2018 (Figure 15). On average, quarterly retail sales have increased, year-over-year, by 5.4 percent or $99.7 million over the last two years.

Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales

Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue

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Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is a 60+ year old accounting firm providing small to middle market businesses with tax, consulting, audit, and technology solution services. With offices in Asheville, Boone, and Marion, NC, our CPAs and JPS team strive to provide personal service alongside technical expertise resulting in our clients’ long-term financial success. >Be Greater