Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 Second Quarter
Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is pleased to produce Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 Second Quarter. JPS is a sixty-year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion; serving Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, accounting fraud, and technology services.
Highlights:
The second quarter saw the four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties) continue a path of stable and unbroken growth. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for nearly eight straight years. The metro holds the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty consecutive months.
⦁ In the second quarter of 2018, Asheville metro added an average of 3,800 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.0 percent. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for ninety-five straight months; nearly eight straight years.
⦁ Averaging 3.1 percent over the second quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below the nation and state. The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty consecutive months; three and one-third years.
⦁ Two major industry sectors led growth in the second quarter of 2018; Leisure & Hospitality and Manufacturing, together accounting for 57 percent of all net new jobs.
⦁ Buncombe County Lodging Sales totaled $105 million in the second quarter; $11.6 million or 12.4 percent above the second quarter of 2017. Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for eight and one-half straight years.
⦁ Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 289,805 in the second quarter of 2018; up 20.2 percent from a year earlier and set a new all-time quarterly record. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.
⦁ Asheville metro closed 2,153 home sales in the second quarter with an average sales price of $316,780 and a median sales price of $269,750. The number of homes sold is 5 percent above the number sold one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 5.6 percent and the median price increased by 7.4 percent.
Detailed Analysis:
Employment
In the second quarter of 2018, Asheville metro added an average of 3,800 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.0 percent (Figure 1). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for ninety-five straight months; nearly eight straight years. Employment averaged 194,500 over the quarter; setting a new all-time second quarter employment total. Asheville metro’s second quarter growth rate outpaced the national rate of 1.6 percent but fell slightly below the statewide rate of 2.1 percent.
Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the second quarter of 2018 places it third among the state’s 15 metros (Figure 2). Two of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Goldsboro and Rocky Mount. Four North Carolina metros grew faster than the national average growth rate of 1.6 percent; Raleigh, Charlotte, Asheville and Winston-Salem.
Figure 2
2018 2Q Average
North Carolina Metros Employment
One-Year Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Averaging 3.1 percent over the second quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below the nation and state; averaging 3.8 and 3.9 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates to roughly 7,200 Asheville metro residents unable to find employment.
Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty consecutive months; three and one-third years. Seven of the state’s metros have second quarter unemployment rates exceeding the national average.
Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2018 2Q Average
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Two major industry sectors led growth in the second quarter of 2018 when compared to one-year earlier; Leisure & Hospitality and Manufacturing, together accounting for 57 percent of all net new jobs (Figure 5). The lack of growth in the Health Services sector marks the first break from its unbroken expansion over the last eight years.
Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2018 2Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change
Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security Earnings
Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville metro equaled $22.53 in the second quarter, a slight gain of 0.7 percent from a year earlier (Figure 6). Earnings growth has remained relatively flat over the last five quarters, with an average gain of 0.3 percent.
Asheville metro’s second quarter hourly earnings place it eight among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Two of the state’s metros held average hourly earnings above both the national and state averages; Charlotte and Raleigh.
Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2018 2Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Leisure & Hospitality
Buncombe County Lodging Sales totaled $105 million in the second quarter; $11.6 million or 12.4 percent above the second quarter of 2017 (Figure 8). Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for eight and one-half straight years.
Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales
Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by 3.1 percent from one year earlier, closely matching the pace of the previous five quarters (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $155 in the second quarter.
Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 289,805 in the second quarter of 2018; up 20.2 percent from a year earlier and set a new all-time quarterly record (Figure 10). This marks the seventh consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.
Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers
Source: Asheville Regional Airport
Housing
Asheville metro closed 2,153 home sales in the second quarter with an average sales price of $316,780 and a median sales price of $269,750 (Figure 11). The number of homes sold is 5 percent above the number sold one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 5.6 percent and the median price increased by 7.4 percent (Figure 12). The second quarter saw 3,110 new home listings, a 0.6 percent decline from the second quarter of 2017.
Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales*
*At present only data from 1Q and 2Q of years 2017 and 2018 are available.
When released, further quarters will be added.
Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends*
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)
*At present only data from 1Q and 2Q of years 2017 and 2018 are available.
When released, further quarters will be added.
Source: Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
At 6.7 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the second quarter ranks fifth among all the state’s metros and holds slightly below the nationwide rate of 6.8 percent (Figure 13). This marks the twenty-first consecutive quarter of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in the Asheville metro. The Fayetteville metro experienced home price depreciation in the quarter.
Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2018 2Q
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 814 units in the second quarter with a value of $166 million (Figure 14). This marks the highest quarterly permit value since 2007. In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is up 4.4 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 7.1 percent. Multifamily accounted for 286 units or 35 percent of all residential units issued in the second quarter.
Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*
*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing
agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Retail Sales
Taxable retail sales in Asheville metro totaled $1,968,050,327 ($1.9 billion) for the second quarter; 6.8 percent above collections for the same period one-year earlier (Figure 15). On average, quarterly retail sales have increased by 7.2 percent over the previous nine quarters.
Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales
Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue
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Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is a 60+ year old accounting firm providing small to middle market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, fraud, and technology solution services. With offices in Asheville, Boone, and Marion, NC, our CPAs and JPS team strive to provide personal service alongside technical expertise resulting in our clients’ long-term financial success. We also invest time and energy in our community, taking pride in doing what we can to make Western North Carolina a better place. JPS Mission: To Be Greater by positively impacting our Clients, People, Community and Profession.
