Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 Fourth Quarter

Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is pleased to produce Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 Fourth Quarter. JPS is a sixty-year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion; serving Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, consulting, audit, and technology services.

Highlights:

The fourth quarter saw the four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties) continue a path of strong, unbroken growth. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for nearly eight and one-half years. The metro holds the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty-six consecutive months. New all-time records were set in Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport and Taxable Retail Sales.

⦁ In the fourth quarter of 2018 Asheville’s metro added an average of 4,300 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.2 percent. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for one-hundred and one straight months; nearly eight and one-half years.

⦁ Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the fourth quarter of 2018 places it alongside Charlotte as the fastest growing metros in the state.

⦁ Averaging 2.9 percent over the fourth quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros. The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty-six consecutive months; nearly four years.

⦁ Six of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the fourth quarter of 2018 when compared to one-year earlier; Manufacturing led with a net gain of 1,400 jobs. This represents the strongest growth in Asheville metro’s Manufacturing sector in over two decades.

⦁ Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 332,180 in the fourth quarter of 2018; up 21.9 percent from a year earlier and setting a new all-time quarterly record. This marks the ninth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.

⦁ Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metro totaled $2,112,167,918 ($2.1 billion) in the fourth quarter; setting a new all-time quarterly record. On average, quarterly retail sales have increased, year-over-year, by 7.5 percent or $126.9 million over the last three years.

Detailed Analysis:

Employment

In the fourth quarter of 2018 Asheville metro added an average of 4,300 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 2.2 percent (Figure 1). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for one-hundred and one straight months; nearly eight and one-half years. Employment averaged 198,00 over the quarter. Asheville metro’s fourth quarter growth rate outpaced the national rate of 1.3 percent and statewide rate of 1.8 percent.

Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year Percent Change

^{Source: NC Division of Employment Security}

Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the fourth quarter of 2018 places it alongside Charlotte’s as the fastest growing metros in the state (Figure 2). Three of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Goldsboro, Greenville and Jacksonville. Among the state’s fifteen metros, only Asheville and Charlotte grew faster than the nation.

Figure 2
2018 4Q Average
North Carolina Metros Employment
One-Year Percent Change

^{Source: NC Division of Employment Security}

Averaging 2.9 percent over the fourth quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below both the nation and state; each averaging 3.6 percent (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into roughly 6,700 Asheville metro residents unable to find employment.

Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last forty-six consecutive months; nearly four years. Eight of the state’s metros have fourth quarter unemployment rates exceeding the national average.

Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)

^{Source: NC Division of Employment Security}

Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2018 4Q Average

^{Source: NC Division of Employment Security}

Six of eleven major industry sectors gained employment in the fourth quarter of 2018 when compared to one-year earlier; Manufacturing led with a net gain of 1,400 jobs (Figure 5). This represents the strongest growth in Asheville metro’s Manufacturing in over two decades. Each with net losses of 100 jobs, the Retail Trade and Leisure & Hospitality sectors were the only industries to experience net job losses.

Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2018 4Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change

^{Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security}

Earnings

Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville’s metro equaled $22.67 in the fourth quarter, a gain of just 0.4 percent from a year earlier (Figure 6). The percentage gain was the smallest since a loss experienced in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Asheville metro’s fourth quarter hourly earnings place it eighth among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Three of the state’s metros held average hourly earnings above both the national and state averages; Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham-Chapel Hill.

Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry

^{Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}

Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2018 4Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry^{Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}

Leisure & Hospitality

Buncombe County Lodging Sales reached $118 million in the fourth quarter; $8 million or 7.3 percent above the fourth quarter of 2017 (Figure 8). Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for nine straight years.

Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales

^{Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority}

Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by 2.2 percent from one year earlier (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $178 in the fourth quarter, the highest average rate on record for the metro.

Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate

^{Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority}

Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 332,180 in the fourth quarter of 2018; up 21.9 percent from a year earlier and setting a new all-time quarterly record (Figure 10). The previous record was set in the third quarter of 2018. This marks the ninth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.

Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers

^{Source: Asheville Regional Airport}

Housing

In the fourth quarter 1,757 home sales were closed in the Asheville metro with an average sales price of $323,330 and a median sales price of $268,983 (Figure 11). The number of homes sold is 7.6 percent below the number sold one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 1.4 percent and the median price increased by 3.9 percent (Figure 12). The fourth quarter saw 1,882 new home listings, a 5.4 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2017.

Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales

^{Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association}

Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)

^{Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association}

At 7.5 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the fourth quarter ranks eighth among all the state’s metros; the rate equals the statewide pace and exceeds the national average of 6.0 percent (Figure 13). This marks the twenty-third consecutive quarter of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in Asheville. Among all 226 metros ranked by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Asheville places 80th for it’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate.

Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2018 4Q

^{Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency}

Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 614 units in the fourth quarter with a value of $131 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is down 10.9 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is down 1.8 percent. Multifamily accounted for 204 units or 33 percent of all residential units issued in the fourth quarter.

Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*

^{*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits. Source: U.S. Census Bureau}

Retail Sales

Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metro totaled $2,112,167,918 ($2.1 billion) in the fourth quarter; setting a new all-time quarterly record. Sales were up 5.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 (Figure 15). On average, quarterly retail sales have increased, year-over-year, by 7.5 percent or $126.9 million over the last three years.

Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales

^{Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.  Source: NC Department of Revenue}

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About JPS:
Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is a 60+ year old accounting firm providing small to middle market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, fraud, and technology solution services. With offices in Asheville, Boone, and Marion, NC, our CPAs and JPS team strive to provide personal service alongside technical expertise resulting in our clients’ long-term financial success. We also invest time and energy in our community, taking pride in doing what we can to make Western North Carolina a better place.  JPS Mission: To Be Greater by positively impacting our Clients, People, Community and Profession.