Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 First Quarter
Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is pleased to produce Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2018 First Quarter. JPS is a sixty-year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion; serving Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, accounting fraud, and technology services.
Highlights:
The first quarter saw a continuation of long-term growth in the four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for ninety-two straight months. The metro holds the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last thirty-seven consecutive months.
⦁ In the first quarter of 2018, Asheville metro added an average of 3,200 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 1.7 percent. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for ninety-two straight months; slightly more than seven and one-half years.
⦁ Employment averaged 191,000 over the quarter; setting a new all-time first quarter employment total. Asheville metro’s first quarter growth rate outpaced the national rate of 1.5 percent but fell slightly below the statewide rate of 1.8 percent.
⦁ Averaging 3.6 percent over the first quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below the nation and state; averaging 4.3 and 4.5 percent respectively. Asheville metropolitan’s average unemployment rate continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros. The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last thirty-seven consecutive months; slightly more than three straight years.
⦁ All eleven major industry sectors either added employment or remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2018 when compared to one year earlier. The Professional & Business Services and Manufacturing sectors led job growth; each adding 600 jobs over the year. This marks the first quarter over the last four years that employment growth wasn’t led by either the Health Services or Leisure & Hospitality sectors.
⦁ Buncombe County Lodging Sales totaled $65 million in the first quarter; $7.6 million or 13.4 percent above the first quarter of 2017. Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for slightly more than eight straight years.
⦁ In the first quarter, 1,388 homes were sold in the metro with an average sales price of $302,748 and a median sales price of $261,00. The number of homes sold is 9.5 percent below the number sold one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 8.6 percent and the median price increased by 12.5 percent.
⦁ Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 796 units in the first quarter with a value of $154 million. In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is up 68.3 percent from one year earlier, while the total value up 26.8 percent.
Detailed Analysis:
Employment
In the first quarter of 2018, Asheville metro added an average of 3,200 net new jobs from a year earlier; earning an average growth rate of 1.7 percent (Figure 1). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for ninety-two straight months; slightly more than seven and one-half years. Employment averaged 191,000 over the quarter; setting a new all-time first quarter employment total. Asheville metro’s first quarter growth rate outpaced the national rate of 1.5 percent but fell slightly below the statewide rate of 1.8 percent.
Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Asheville metropolitan’s employment growth rate over the first quarter of 2018 places it third among the state’s 15 metros (Figure 2). Four of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Burlington, Goldsboro, New Bern and Rocky Mount. Only three North Carolina metros grew faster than the national average growth rate of 1.5 percent; Charlotte, Raleigh, and Asheville.
Figure 2
2018 1Q Average
North Carolina Metros Employment
One-Year Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Averaging 3.6 percent over the first quarter of 2018, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below the nation and state; averaging 4.3 and 4.5 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into 8,400 residents unable to find employment.
Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last thirty-seven consecutive months; slightly more than three straight years. Eight of the state’s metros have first quarter unemployment rates exceeding the national average.
Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2018 1Q Average
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
All eleven major industry sectors either added employment or remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2018 when compared to one-year earlier (Figure 5). The Professional & Business Services and Manufacturing sectors led job growth in the first quarter; each adding 600 jobs over the year. This marks the first quarter in the last four years that employment growth wasn’t led by either the Health Services or Leisure & Hospitality sectors in the Asheville metro.
Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2018 1Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change
Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Earnings
Private industry average hourly earnings in the Asheville metro equaled $22.87 in the first quarter, a slight gain of 0.5 percent from a year earlier (Figure 6). Earnings growth has remained relatively flat over the last four quarters, with an average gain of 0.2 percent.
Asheville metro’s first quarter hourly earnings place it seventh among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Two of the state’s metros held average hourly earnings above both the national and state averages; Charlotte and Raleigh.
Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2018 1Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Leisure & Hospitality
Buncombe County Lodging Sales totaled $65 million in the first quarter; $7.6 million or 13.4 percent above the first quarter of 2017 (Figure 8). Lodging Sales have experienced positive quarterly year-over-year growth for slightly more than eight straight years.
Figure 8
Buncombe County
Lodging Sales
Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by 2.4 percent from one year earlier, closely matching the pace of the previous four quarters (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $121 in the first quarter.
Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 204,256 in the first quarter of 2018; up 22.8 percent from a year earlier (Figure 10). This marks the sixth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.
Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers
Source: Asheville Regional Airport
Housing
In the first quarter, 1,388 homes were sold in Asheville metro with an average sales price of $302,748 and a median sales price of $261,00 (Figure 11). The number of homes sold is 9.5 percent below the number sold one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 8.6 percent and the median price increased by 12.5 percent (Figure 12). The first quarter saw 2,194 new home listings, a 2.5 percent decline from the first quarter of 2017.
Figure 11
Asheville Metro
Home Sales
Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
Figure 12
Asheville Metro
Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)
Source: Source: NCMMLS, provided by Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association
At 8.3 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the first quarter ranks third among all the state’s metros and holds above both the statewide and national rates (Figure 13). This marks the twentieth consecutive quarter of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in the Asheville metropolitan. None of North Carolina metro’s experienced home price depreciation in the quarter.
Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2018 1Q
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Estimated permit activity for new residential building totaled 796 units in the first quarter with a value of $154 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is up 68.3 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 26.8 percent. Multifamily accounted for 313 units or 39 percent of all residential units issued in the first quarter.
Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Estimated Residential Building Permits Activity*
*Based on a survey of permitting agencies. The Census Bureau provides estimates for any missing
agency data, which typically amounts to less than 20% of the total permits.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Retail Sales
Taxable retail sales in the Asheville metropolitan totaled $1,721,285,519 ($1.7 billion) for the first quarter; 5.9 percent above collections for the same period one-year earlier (Figure 15). The percentage gain marks a return to growth after the 2017 fourth quarter dip of -0.2 percent; the first year-over-year decline in the previous sixteen quarters.
Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales
Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue
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Johnson Price Sprinkle PA is a 60+ year old accounting firm providing small to middle market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, fraud, and technology solution services. With offices in Asheville, Boone, and Marion, NC, our CPAs and JPS team strive to provide personal service alongside technical expertise resulting in our clients’ long-term financial success. We also invest time and energy in our community, taking pride in doing what we can to make Western North Carolina a better place. JPS Mission: To Be Greater by positively impacting our Clients, People, Community and Profession.
