Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2017 Third Quarter
Johnson Price Sprinkle PA provides an Asheville Metro Economic Report – 2017 Third Quarter. JPS is a sixty-year-old accounting firm with offices in Asheville, Boone & Marion; serving Western North Carolina with dedicated CPAs providing small-to-middle-market businesses with tax, business consulting, audit, and technology services.
Highlights:
The third quarter saw a continuation of long-term growth in the four-county Asheville metro (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson and Madison counties). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for just over seven straight years. Despite steady expansion, Asheville metro experienced its lowest growth rate since 2012; slipping below both the national and statewide rates; the first time in over two years.
⦁ In the third quarter, Asheville metro added an average of 2,000 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 1.0 percent. Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for just over seven years. Employment averaged 189,500 over the quarter; setting a new all-time third-quarter employment total record.
⦁ The third quarter marked the metro’s lowest growth rate since 2012, placing it eighth among the state’s 15 metros. The growth rate slipped below both the national and statewide rates; the first time in over two years.
⦁ At 3.5 percent, Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros. Asheville metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for slightly more than two and one-half years.
⦁ The Health Services and Professional & Business Services sectors led job growth in the third quarter; each adding 600 jobs over the year. The Retail Trade sector experienced its first employment decline since August of 2011, amounting to a drop of 200 jobs or 0.2 percent.
⦁ Buncombe County Hotel/Motel Sales set a new all-time quarter high at $110 million; $9.4 million or 9.5 percent above the third quarter of 2016. Quarterly Hotel/Motel Sales have experienced positive year-over-year growth for nearly eight straight years.
⦁ Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 276,652 in the third quarter of 2017; up 10.8 percent from a year earlier. The total sets a new all-time quarterly record.
⦁ Permitting for new residential building totaled 820 units in the third quarter with a value of $154.2 million. In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is up 67.3 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 23.5 percent. Multifamily accounted for 288 units or 35 percent of all residential units issued in the third quarter; the highest number in seven years.
Detailed Analysis:
Employment
In the third quarter of 2017, Asheville metropolitan area added an average of 2,000 net new jobs from a year earlier, earning an average growth rate of 1.0 percent (Figure 1). Positive monthly year-to-year job growth has continued uninterrupted for eighty-six straight months; just over seven years. Employment averaged 189,500 over the quarter; setting a new all-time third-quarter employment total. Despite the record, the third quarter marked Asheville metro’s lowest growth rate since 2012.
Figure 1
Total Employment
Monthly Year-Year
Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Asheville metro’s employment growth rate over the third quarter of 2017 places it eighth among the state’s 15 metros (Figure 2). The growth rate slipped below both the national and statewide rates; the first time in over two years. Three of North Carolina’s metros lost employment over the quarter; Greenville, Goldsboro and Rocky Mount.
Figure 2
2017 3Q Average
North Carolina Metros Employment
One-Year Percent Change
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Averaging 3.5 percent over the third quarter of 2017, Asheville metro’s unemployment rate continues to hold well below the nation and state; averaging 4.4 and 4.3 percent respectively (Figure 3). The unemployment rate translates into 8,000 residents unable to find employment.
Asheville metro’s average unemployment rate for the quarter continues as the lowest among all the state’s fifteen metros (Figure 4). The metro has held the lowest unemployment rate in the state for the last thirty-one consecutive months; slightly more than two and one-half years. Seven of the state’s metros have quarterly unemployment rates exceeding the national average.
Figure 3
Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Figure 4
Unemployment Rate (%)
2017 3Q Average
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
The Health Services and Professional & Business Services sectors led job growth in the third quarter; each adding 600 jobs over the year. Positive job creation was experienced in seven of eleven major industry sectors (Figure 5). The Retail Trade sector experienced its first employment decline since August of 2011, amounting to a drop of 200 jobs or 0.2 percent.
Figure 5
Asheville Metro – 2017 3Q
Major Industry Employment
One-Year Change
Totals rounded to nearest 100
Source: NC Division of Employment Security
Earnings
Private industry average hourly earnings in Asheville’s metro equaled $22.43 in the third quarter, a slight increase of 0.8 percent from a year earlier; marking the eighth straight quarter with positive year-over-year gains (Figure 6).
Asheville’s third quarter-hourly earnings place it seventh among all fifteen metros in the state; remaining below the statewide and national averages (Figure 7). Three of the state’s metros continue to hold average hourly earnings above both the national and state averages; Raleigh, Charlotte, and Durham-Chapel Hill.
Figure 6
Asheville Metro
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 7
North Carolina Metros – 2017 3Q
Average Hourly Earnings
Private Industry
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Leisure & Hospitality
Buncombe County Hotel/Motel Sales set a new all-time quarter high at $110 million; $9.4 million or 9.5 percent above the third quarter of 2016 (Figure 8). Quarterly Hotel/Motel Sales have experienced positive year-over-year growth for nearly eight straight years.
Figure 8
Buncombe County
Hotel/Motel Sales
Source: Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Average Hotel Room Rates in Buncombe County rose by 2.2 percent from one year earlier, closely matching the pace of the last two quarters (Figure 9). The room rate averaged $161 in the third quarter.
Figure 9
Buncombe County
Average Hotel Room Rate
Source: Smith Travel Research, Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority
Total Passenger Traffic at the Asheville Regional Airport equaled 276,652 in the third quarter of 2017; up 10.8 percent from a year earlier (Figure 10). The total sets a new all-time quarterly record. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter with double-digit passenger increases.
Figure 10
Asheville Regional Airport
Total Passengers
Source: Asheville Regional Airport
Source: Asheville Regional AirportHousing
Existing homes sold in the third quarter totaled 1,082, while the average sales price equaled $332,786 (Figure 11). The number of homes sold is 9 percent lower than one-year earlier, while over the same period the average sales price gained 4 percent (Figure 12). This marks the fifth consecutive quarter with the number of homes sold declining when measured year-over-year, while average prices continue to increase; likely indicating limited inventory amid strong demand.
Figure 11
Asheville Area
Existing Home Sales
Source: NC REALTORS
Figure 12
Asheville Area
Existing Home Sales Trends
Quarterly Year-Year Change (%)
Source: NC REALTORS
At 7.1 percent, Asheville metro’s Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate in the third quarter ranks fifth among all the state’s metros and holds slightly above both the state and national rates (Figure 13). This marks the eighteenth consecutive quarter of positive Same-Home Appreciation Rates in Asheville’s metro. Both the Fayetteville and Goldsboro metros experienced home price depreciation in the quarter.
Figure 13
North Carolina Metros
Same-Home Annual Appreciation Rate (%)
2017 3Q
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Permitting for new residential building totaled 820 units in the third quarter with a value of $154.2 million (Figure 14). In percentage terms, the total number of units permitted is up 67.3 percent from one year earlier, while the total value is up 23.5 percent. Multifamily accounted for 288 units or 35 percent of all residential units issued in the third quarter; the highest number in seven years.
Figure 14
Asheville Metro
Residential Building Permits
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Retail Sales
Taxable retail sales collections in Asheville metro totaled $1,243,874,235 ($1.2 billion) for the first two months of the third quarter; 5.4 percent above collections for the same two-month period one-year earlier (Figure 15). September 2017 retail figures are not available at publication time. Retail sales have experienced positive year-over-year growth over the last fifteen consecutive quarters; averaging an annual increase of 9.3 percent or $124.1 million.
Figure 15
Asheville Metro
Taxable Retail Sales
*Due to unavailability of September 2017 Taxable Retail Sales all 3Q totals adjusted to reflect July and August only.
Includes collections of penalties, interest, and sales & use tax; and may reflect activity from prior periods.
Source: NC Department of Revenue
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